MIDDLE TENNESSEE
MTSUMTSU
1-8 | Road
26
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN KYWKU
7-2 | Home
42
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ashton Logan
#92 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Cameron Flowers
#4 | Wide Receiver| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ashton Logan | None-None |
| Cameron Flowers | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
100%
WESTERN KY
0%
MTSU
--
WESTERN KY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)
MTSU By 1-6 points
7.9%
MTSU By 7-13 points
4.7%
WKU By 1-6 points
12.9%
WKU By 7-13 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Middle Tennessee
24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Western Kentucky
38
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Middle Tennessee
27
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Western Kentucky
31
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Western KY
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Western KY
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Western KY (-13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim
Western KY (-13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o51.5
Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim
o51.5
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
MTSU @ WKU
26 - 42
Sep 14, 2024
WKU @ MTSU
49 - 21
Sep 28, 2023
MTSU @ WKU
10 - 31
Oct 15, 2022
WKU @ MTSU
35 - 17
Nov 6, 2021
MTSU @ WKU
21 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+62.7% more
Western Kentucky: 120.7
vs
Middle Tennessee: 74.2
First Downs (L5)
+9.3% more
Western Kentucky: 21.4
vs
Middle Tennessee: 19.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+9.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.5
vs
Middle Tennessee: 0.4
Turnovers (L5)
+11.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 1.9
vs
Western Kentucky: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score
24.0
26
WKU Score
38.0
42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.4 / 19.5
29.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
120.7 / 74.2
271.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.58 / 0.47
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards
385.5 / 357.4
642.0 / 541.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
WKU
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -19.8
ATS +/-: -10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
WKU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -19.8
ATS +/-: -10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -3.9
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
MTSU
WKU
MTSU
ML
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
ATS
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
TTL
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
