Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ Michigan St PSU @ MSU

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-6  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-6  |  Home

10
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Khalil Majeed
KEY GAME

Khalil Majeed

#34 | Safety
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Khalil Majeed None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
100%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
0%
PENN STATE --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Michigan State)
Penn StatePSU (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

30.9%

Michigan St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

PSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

MSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

MSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
PENN STATE
38
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
13
PENN STATE
31
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan St (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Michigan St (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 PSU @ MSU 28 - 10
Nov 24, 2023 PSU @ MSU 42 - 0
Nov 26, 2022 MSU @ PSU 16 - 35
Nov 27, 2021 PSU @ MSU 27 - 30
Dec 12, 2020 MSU @ PSU 24 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
Michigan State: 365.7 vs Penn State: 295.8
Turnovers (L5) +60.6% more
Penn State: 1.6 vs Michigan State: 0.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Penn State: 0.5 vs Michigan State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 31.0 28
MSU Score 38.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 17.2 13.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 120.5 / 125.1 101.0 / 240.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.1 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 365.7 / 295.8 229.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
PSU
MSU
PSU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Penn State's Second Straight Loss Exposes Alarming Statistical T…
yahoo 5 days, 12 hours ago
Northwestern Thrashes Penn State 34-13 in New Ryan Field Debut: …
usatoday 5 days, 18 hours ago
Northwestern Opens $875M Ryan Field: A New Era for Wildcat Footb…
yahoo 6 days, 12 hours ago