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UCF

UCFUCF

4-5  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

9-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
Antione Jackson
KEY GAME

Antione Jackson

#7 | Defensive Back
@
Stone Harrington
KEY GAME

Stone Harrington

#48 | Place kicker
Player
Antione Jackson None-None
Stone Harrington None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
100%
📊
TEXAS TECH
0%
UCF --
TEXAS TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Texas Tech)
UCFUCF (-3.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

0.3%

Texas Tech Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

UCF By 1-6 points

0.2%

UCF By 7-13 points

0.1%

TTU By 1-6 points

0.9%

TTU By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3
UCF
41
TEXAS TECH
Simulated Score
27
UCF
31
TEXAS TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Tech Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech (-24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim Texas Tech (-24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UCF @ TTU 9 - 48
Nov 18, 2023 UCF @ TTU 23 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Texas Tech: 406.6 vs UCF: 350.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.4 vs UCF: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Texas Tech: 19.3 vs UCF: 17.2
Turnovers (L5) +38.1% more
UCF: 1.8 vs Texas Tech: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 3.0 9
TTU Score 41.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 17.2 26.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 164.7 / 161.6 205.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 406.6 / 350.4 499.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
UCF
TTU
UCF
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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