Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ James Madison APP @ JMU

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

4-5  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

8-1  |  Home

58
Key Game
Ahmad Robinson
KEY GAME

Ahmad Robinson

#9 | Defensive Back
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Ahmad Robinson None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
100%
📊
JAMES MADISON
0%
APP STATE --
JAMES MADISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (James Madison)
App StateAPP (-3.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

0.1%

James Madison Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

APP By 1-6 points

0.1%

APP By 7-13 points

0.0%

JMU By 1-6 points

0.4%

JMU By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3
APP STATE
45
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
27
APP STATE
31
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim James Madison Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI James Madison (-21) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim James Madison (-21) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 APP @ JMU 10 - 58
Nov 23, 2024 JMU @ APP 20 - 34
Nov 18, 2023 APP @ JMU 26 - 23
Sep 24, 2022 JMU @ APP 32 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +110.0% more
James Madison: 212.8 vs App State: 101.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
James Madison: 0.5 vs App State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.3% more
James Madison: 463.5 vs App State: 401.9
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
James Madison: 0.6 vs App State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 3.0 10
JMU Score 45.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 22.8 32.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 212.8 / 101.3 324.0 / 1.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.57 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.7 / 0.29
Total Yards 463.5 / 401.9 627.0 / 146.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
APP
JMU
APP
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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