Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ Nevada SJSU @ NEV

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

3-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-8  |  Home

55
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Joe McFadden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
📊
NEVADA
100%
SAN JOSÉ ST --
NEVADA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (-3.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

98.7%

Nevada Cover

1.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SJSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

SJSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

NEV By 1-6 points

0.9%

NEV By 7-13 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
SAN JOSÉ STATE
7
NEVADA
Simulated Score
20
SAN JOSÉ STATE
27
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San José St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nevada Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San José St (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Nevada (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 SJSU @ NEV 10 - 55
Oct 5, 2024 NEV @ SJSU 31 - 35
Oct 29, 2022 NEV @ SJSU 28 - 35
Nov 6, 2021 SJSU @ NEV 24 - 27
Dec 11, 2020 NEV @ SJSU 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +46.4% more
San José State: 489.5 vs Nevada: 262.6
First Downs (L5) +38.8% more
San José State: 23.3 vs Nevada: 14.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
San José State: 0.5 vs Nevada: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.4% more
San José State: 125.8 vs Nevada: 109.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 38.0 10
NEV Score 7.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.3 / 23.3 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 109.0 / 125.8 218.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 262.6 / 489.5 413.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 1.6 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SJSU
NEV
SJSU
ML
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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