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TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-6  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

7-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
Greg Gipson Jr.
KEY GAME

Greg Gipson Jr.

#36 | Defensive Back
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Greg Gipson Jr. None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
100%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
0%
TEXAS ST --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Southern Miss)
Texas StTXST (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

5.8%

Southern Miss Cover

94.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

TXST By 1-6 points

3.3%

TXST By 7-13 points

1.5%

USM By 1-6 points

7.2%

USM By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
30
TEXAS STATE
52
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
27
TEXAS STATE
24
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Sim Texas St (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o65.5 Loss
Proj Total: 82.0
C
Sim u65.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 TXST @ USM 41 - 14
Nov 16, 2024 USM @ TXST 3 - 58
Sep 30, 2023 TXST @ USM 50 - 36
Oct 22, 2022 USM @ TXST 20 - 14
Sep 19, 2015 USM @ TXST 56 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.4% more
Texas State: 2.0 vs Southern Miss: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 30.0 41
USM Score 52.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 21.5 20.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 169.1 / 178.0 124.0 / 257.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 448.3 / 484.3 391.0 / 449.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.0 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
TXST
USM
TXST
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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