Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Tennessee NMSU @ TENN

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-6  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 4:15 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

6-3  |  Home

42
Key Game
David Barker
KEY GAME

David Barker

#92 | Place kicker
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
David Barker None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
📊
TENNESSEE
0%
NEW MEXICO ST --
TENNESSEE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Tennessee)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

15.9%

Tennessee Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

NMSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

NMSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

TENN By 1-6 points

12.9%

TENN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24
NEW MEXICO STATE
38
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
10
NEW MEXICO STATE
45
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tennessee Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tennessee Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Tennessee (+41.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 NMSU @ TENN 9 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +61.5% more
Tennessee: 470.8 vs New Mexico State: 291.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +59.2% more
Tennessee: 128.3 vs New Mexico State: 80.6
First Downs (L5) +26.1% more
Tennessee: 26.0 vs New Mexico State: 20.6
Turnovers (L5) +32.3% more
New Mexico State: 2.3 vs Tennessee: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 24.0 9
TENN Score 38.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.0 / 20.6 22.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 128.3 / 80.6 194.0 / 27.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 470.8 / 291.6 413.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
NMSU
TENN
NMSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
ATS
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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