Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Ole Miss FLA @ MISS

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

3-6  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

9-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jeramiah McCloud
KEY GAME

Jeramiah McCloud

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Jeramiah McCloud None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
FLORIDA --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Ole Miss)
FloridaFLA (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

2.7%

Ole Miss Cover

97.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

FLA By 1-6 points

1.6%

FLA By 7-13 points

0.6%

MISS By 1-6 points

4.2%

MISS By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14
FLORIDA
41
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA
28
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim Ole Miss (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MISS @ FLA 28 - 52
Nov 15, 2025 FLA @ MISS 24 - 34
Nov 23, 2024 MISS @ FLA 17 - 24
Sep 26, 2020 FLA @ MISS 51 - 35
Oct 3, 2015 MISS @ FLA 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +55.6% more
Ole Miss: 488.0 vs Florida: 313.7
First Downs (L5) +45.3% more
Ole Miss: 26.1 vs Florida: 18.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.8% more
Ole Miss: 170.8 vs Florida: 119.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Ole Miss: 0.4 vs Florida: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 14.0 24
MISS Score 41.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 18.0 27.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 170.8 / 119.6 237.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 488.0 / 313.7 538.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
FLA
MISS
FLA
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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