Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Purdue @ Washington PUR @ WASH

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

2-8  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

6-3  |  Home

49
Key Game
Ian Jeffries
KEY GAME

Ian Jeffries

#40 | Defensive Lineman
@
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
Player
Ian Jeffries None-None
Luke Dunne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
100%
📊
WASHINGTON
0%
PURDUE --
WASHINGTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Washington)
PurduePUR (-3.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purdue Cover

6.7%

Washington Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

PUR By 1-6 points

3.8%

PUR By 7-13 points

1.8%

WASH By 1-6 points

7.9%

WASH By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
10
PURDUE
31
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
PURDUE
31
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Washington (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Washington (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 PUR @ WASH 13 - 49
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +26.4% more
Washington: 20.3 vs Purdue: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +24.4% more
Washington: 355.0 vs Purdue: 285.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Washington: 0.5 vs Purdue: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Purdue: 1.5 vs Washington: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 10.0 13
WASH Score 31.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 16.1 24.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 124.7 / 133.1 212.0 / 100.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.7 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 355.0 / 285.3 506.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
WASH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
PUR
WASH
PUR
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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