Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ UNLV USU @ UNLV

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

5-4  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

7-2  |  Home

29
Key Game
Kahanu Davis
KEY GAME

Kahanu Davis

#7 | Wide Receiver
@
Mumu Bin-Wahad
KEY GAME

Mumu Bin-Wahad

#1 | Defensive Back
Player
Kahanu Davis None-None
Mumu Bin-Wahad None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
100%
📊
UNLV
0%
UTAH STATE --
UNLV --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UNLV)
Utah StateUSU (-3.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

21.6%

UNLV Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

USU By 1-6 points

10.0%

USU By 7-13 points

6.6%

UNLV By 1-6 points

14.7%

UNLV By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
34
UTAH STATE
45
UNLV
Simulated Score
27
UTAH STATE
31
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UNLV Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UNLV Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UNLV (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim UNLV (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o68.5 Loss
Proj Total: 79.0
C
Sim u68.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 USU @ UNLV 26 - 29
Oct 11, 2024 UNLV @ USU 50 - 34
Sep 24, 2022 UNLV @ USU 34 - 24
Oct 16, 2021 USU @ UNLV 28 - 24
Oct 13, 2018 UNLV @ USU 28 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.0% more
UNLV: 1.4 vs Utah State: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.4% more
UNLV: 223.3 vs Utah State: 153.6
First Downs (L5) +13.4% more
UNLV: 22.9 vs Utah State: 20.2
Total Yards (L5) +12.6% more
UNLV: 498.3 vs Utah State: 442.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 34.0 26
UNLV Score 45.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 20.2 27.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 223.3 / 153.6 146.0 / 178.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 498.3 / 442.7 422.0 / 434.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
USU
UNLV
USU
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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