UTAH
UTAHUTAH
7-2 | Road
55
BAYLOR
BAYLORBAY
5-4 | Home
28
Key Game
KEY GAME
Orion Phillips
#92 | Punter@
KEY GAME
LeVar Thornton Jr.
#25 | Cornerback| Player | |
|---|---|
| Orion Phillips | None-None |
| LeVar Thornton Jr. | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH
0%
BAYLOR
100%
UTAH
--
BAYLOR
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTAH -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
UTAH By 1-6 points
7.9%
UTAH By 7-13 points
14.6%
BAY By 1-6 points
3.8%
BAY By 7-13 points
1.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
41
UTAH
Baylor
20
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
Utah
24
UTAH
Baylor
27
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Utah
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Baylor
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Utah (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim
Baylor (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
UTAH @ BAY
55 - 28
Sep 7, 2024
BAY @ UTAH
12 - 23
Sep 9, 2023
UTAH @ BAY
20 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+50.7% more
Utah: 284.4
vs
Baylor: 140.3
Total Yards (L5)
+16.2% more
Utah: 486.1
vs
Baylor: 407.5
First Downs (L5)
+9.9% more
Utah: 26.0
vs
Baylor: 23.4
Turnovers (L5)
+48.8% more
Baylor: 1.9
vs
Utah: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
41.0
55
BAY Score
20.0
28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
23.4 / 26.0
28.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
140.3 / 284.4
133.0 / 380.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.29 / 0.55
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
407.5 / 486.1
563.0 / 483.0
Turnovers
1.9 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 33.0
ATS +/-: +11.9
BAY
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 20.6
ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 33.0
ATS +/-: +11.9
BAY
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 20.6
ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
UTAH
BAY
UTAH
ML
80%
4-1
100%
4-0
80%
4-1
100%
4-0
ATS
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
25%
1-3
TTL
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
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