Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia Tech @ Florida St VT @ FSU

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

3-6  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

4-5  |  Home

34
Key Game
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
@
Deante McCray
KEY GAME

Deante McCray

#8 | Defensive Lineman
Player
John Love None-None
Deante McCray None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA TECH
100%
📊
FLORIDA ST
0%
VIRGINIA TECH --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Florida State)
Virginia TechVT (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Tech Cover

2.3%

Florida St Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

VT By 1-6 points

1.4%

VT By 7-13 points

0.5%

FSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

FSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
VIRGINIA TECH
38
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
31
VIRGINIA TECH
20
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Tech Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Florida St (-14) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Virginia Tech (+14) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 VT @ FSU 14 - 34
Oct 7, 2023 VT @ FSU 17 - 39
Sep 3, 2018 VT @ FSU 24 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +79.0% more
Florida State: 1.4 vs Virginia Tech: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Florida State: 418.5 vs Virginia Tech: 343.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Florida State: 0.5 vs Virginia Tech: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +8.3% more
Florida State: 20.9 vs Virginia Tech: 19.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 10.0 14
FSU Score 38.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 19.3 27.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 154.0 / 210.8 237.0 / 238.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 418.5 / 343.7 431.0 / 363.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
VT
FSU
VT
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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