Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mississippi St @ Missouri MSST @ MIZ

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

5-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:45 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

6-3  |  Home

49
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Oliver Robbins
KEY GAME

Oliver Robbins

#48 | Place kicker
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Oliver Robbins None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
100%
📊
MISSOURI
0%
MISSISSIPPI ST --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Missouri)
Mississippi StMSST (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

9.9%

Missouri Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

MSST By 1-6 points

5.3%

MSST By 7-13 points

2.8%

MIZ By 1-6 points

10.0%

MIZ By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17
MISSISSIPPI STATE
35
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
24
MISSISSIPPI STATE
30
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MIZ @ MSST 24 - 31
Nov 15, 2025 MSST @ MIZ 27 - 49
Nov 23, 2024 MIZ @ MSST 39 - 20
Dec 19, 2020 MIZ @ MSST 32 - 51
Nov 5, 2015 MSST @ MIZ 31 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.4% more
Missouri: 190.8 vs Mississippi State: 129.4
Turnovers (L5) +31.4% more
Missouri: 1.6 vs Mississippi State: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 17.0 27
MIZ Score 35.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 21.2 17.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 190.8 / 129.4 326.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 361.9 / 374.6 438.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
MIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
MSST
MIZ
MSST
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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