Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kennesaw St @ Jax State KENN @ JXST

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

7-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 8:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

6-3  |  Home

35
Key Game
Daniel Kinney
KEY GAME

Daniel Kinney

#89 | Place kicker
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Daniel Kinney None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
0%
📊
JAX STATE
100%
KENNESAW ST --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Kennesaw State)
Kennesaw StKENN (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

76.2%

Jax State Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KENN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-6 points

15.3%

KENN By 7-13 points

19.7%

JXST By 1-6 points

10.7%

JXST By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23
KENNESAW STATE
13
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
24
KENNESAW STATE
28
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Jax State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Jax State (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 36.0
C
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 JXST @ KENN 27 - 26
Dec 5, 2025 KENN @ JXST 19 - 15
Nov 15, 2025 KENN @ JXST 26 - 35
Oct 4, 2024 JXST @ KENN 63 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.4% more
Kennesaw State: 1.2 vs Jacksonville State: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.1% more
Jacksonville State: 249.6 vs Kennesaw State: 175.7
First Downs (L5) +10.7% more
Jacksonville State: 22.0 vs Kennesaw State: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 23.0 26
JXST Score 13.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 19.9 18.0 / 32.0
Rushing Yards 249.6 / 175.7 252.0 / 217.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 421.5 / 393.5 451.0 / 579.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
KENN
JXST
KENN
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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