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TCU

TCUTCU

6-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 10:15 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

8-1  |  Home

44
Key Game
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
@
Raider Damuni
KEY GAME

Raider Damuni

#3 | Safety
Player
Nate McCashland None-None
Raider Damuni None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
0%
📊
BYU
100%
TCU --
BYU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 BYUBYU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

47.2%

BYU Cover

52.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BYU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

TCU By 1-6 points

16.7%

TCU By 7-13 points

16.1%

BYU By 1-6 points

16.1%

BYU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
28
TCU
27
BYU
Simulated Score
27
TCU
28
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI TCU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim BYU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI BYU (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Sim BYU (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BYU @ TCU 17 - 10
Nov 15, 2025 TCU @ BYU 13 - 44
Oct 14, 2023 BYU @ TCU 11 - 44
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +20.5% more
TCU: 23.5 vs BYU: 18.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
TCU: 0.5 vs BYU: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
TCU: 1.7 vs BYU: 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
TCU: 405.8 vs BYU: 360.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 28.0 13
BYU Score 27.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 23.5 28.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 139.1 / 114.9 151.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 360.2 / 405.8 447.0 / 298.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
TCU
BYU
TCU
ML
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
0% 0-3
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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