Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ San Diego St BOIS @ SDSU

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

6-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

7-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Malachi Finau
KEY GAME

Malachi Finau

#6 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Malachi Finau None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
100%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
0%
BOISE ST --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (San Diego State)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

21.6%

San Diego St Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SDSU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

BOIS By 1-6 points

10.0%

BOIS By 7-13 points

6.6%

SDSU By 1-6 points

14.7%

SDSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
10
BOISE STATE
21
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
20
BOISE STATE
27
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI San Diego St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San Diego St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San Diego St (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim San Diego St (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 BOIS @ SDSU 7 - 17
Nov 1, 2024 SDSU @ BOIS 24 - 56
Sep 22, 2023 BOIS @ SDSU 34 - 31
Sep 30, 2022 SDSU @ BOIS 13 - 35
Nov 26, 2021 BOIS @ SDSU 16 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.3% more
San Diego State: 2.2 vs Boise State: 1.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
San Diego State: 176.7 vs Boise State: 153.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Boise State: 0.4 vs San Diego State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Boise State: 18.6 vs San Diego State: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 10.0 7
SDSU Score 21.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 18.6 12.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 176.7 / 153.9 277.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 341.2 / 341.8 294.0 / 268.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
BOIS
SDSU
BOIS
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oregon State Offers MMR Boosters as San Diego State Battles Mump…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Boise State Rolls Past Utah State 37-18 in First Pac-12 Clash fo…
abcnews 4 days, 17 hours ago
Boise State's Spencer Danielson Calls Western Michigan 'Undefeat…
yahoo 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Rose Bowl Debuts $30M Field Club as UCLA Eyes Football Renaissan…
headtopics 3 weeks, 6 days ago
Boise State's Tackling Turnaround: New Coach Terrence Brown Gets…
idahostatesman 3 weeks, 6 days ago