WYOMING
WYOMINGWYO
4-5 | Road
3
FRESNO STATE
FRESNO STFRES
6-3 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bart Edmiston
#18 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Loyall Mouzon
#7 | Defensive Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bart Edmiston | None-None |
| Loyall Mouzon | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WYOMING
0%
FRESNO ST
100%
WYOMING
--
FRESNO ST
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
WYOMING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Wyoming)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WYO -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)
WYO By 1-6 points
10.0%
WYO By 7-13 points
16.8%
FRES By 1-6 points
5.3%
FRES By 7-13 points
2.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Wyoming
21
WYOMING
Fresno State
3
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
Wyoming
24
WYOMING
Fresno State
28
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wyoming
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Fresno St
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wyoming (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim
Fresno St (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u40.5
Win
Proj Total: 24.0
C
Sim
o40.5
Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
WYO @ FRES
3 - 24
Oct 7, 2023
FRES @ WYO
19 - 24
Nov 25, 2022
WYO @ FRES
0 - 30
Oct 16, 2021
FRES @ WYO
17 - 0
Oct 13, 2018
WYO @ FRES
3 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.8% more
Wyoming: 2.3
vs
Fresno State: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WYO Score
21.0
3
FRES Score
3.0
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.9 / 16.7
22.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards
135.6 / 144.1
216.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.31 / 0.2
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards
300.9 / 313.2
311.0 / 184.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 2.3
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WYO
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -7.8
ATS +/-: -8.3
FRES
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WYO
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -7.8
ATS +/-: -8.3
FRES
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WYO
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -7.7
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
WYO
FRES
WYO
ML
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
100%
5-0
ATS
20%
1-4
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
TTL
40%
2-3
0%
0-5
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
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