Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Oregon MINN @ ORE

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

6-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

8-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Riley Sunram
KEY GAME

Riley Sunram

#93 | Defensive Lineman
@
Gavin Nix
KEY GAME

Gavin Nix

#13 | Linebacker
Player
Riley Sunram None-None
Gavin Nix None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
MINNESOTA --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Oregon)
MinnesotaMINN (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

1.3%

Oregon Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

MINN By 1-6 points

0.9%

MINN By 7-13 points

0.3%

ORE By 1-6 points

2.5%

ORE By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MINNESOTA
38
OREGON
Simulated Score
20
MINNESOTA
38
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Oregon Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon (-26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
B
Sim Oregon (-26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 MINN @ ORE 13 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +167.1% more
Oregon: 243.0 vs Minnesota: 91.0
Total Yards (L5) +61.1% more
Oregon: 429.7 vs Minnesota: 266.7
First Downs (L5) +27.9% more
Oregon: 20.6 vs Minnesota: 16.1
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Oregon: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 7.0 13
ORE Score 38.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 16.1 27.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 243.0 / 91.0 179.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 429.7 / 266.7 510.0 / 200.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
MINN
ORE
MINN
ML
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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