Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ Akron KENT @ AKR

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

3-6  |  Road

42
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:30 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium
View Odds Details →

AKRON

AKRONAKR

4-6  |  Home

35
Key Game
Tommy Arnold
KEY GAME

Tommy Arnold

#45 | Tight End
@
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
Player
Tommy Arnold None-None
Joseph Castle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
100%
📊
AKRON
0%
KENT STATE --
AKRON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Akron)
Kent StateKENT (-3.5) 0 AkronAKR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

11.2%

Akron Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AKR -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

KENT By 1-6 points

5.9%

KENT By 7-13 points

3.2%

AKR By 1-6 points

10.7%

AKR By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
KENT STATE
24
AKRON
Simulated Score
24
KENT STATE
27
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Akron Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim Akron (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 KENT @ AKR 42 - 35
Nov 19, 2024 AKR @ KENT 38 - 17
Nov 1, 2023 KENT @ AKR 27 - 31
Oct 22, 2022 AKR @ KENT 27 - 33
Nov 20, 2021 KENT @ AKR 38 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +79.0% more
Akron: 1.6 vs Kent State: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +64.8% more
Akron: 153.7 vs Kent State: 93.3
First Downs (L5) +62.3% more
Akron: 21.2 vs Kent State: 13.1
Total Yards (L5) +39.4% more
Akron: 384.7 vs Kent State: 276.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 7.0 42
AKR Score 24.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 13.1 33.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 153.7 / 93.3 106.0 / 57.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.37 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 384.7 / 276.0 530.0 / 374.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
KENT
AKR
KENT
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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