Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ C Michigan BUFF @ CMU

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

5-4  |  Road

19
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

5-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
James McNeil Jr.
KEY GAME

James McNeil Jr.

#24 | Running Back
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
James McNeil Jr. None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
100%
📊
C MICHIGAN
0%
BUFFALO --
C MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Central Michigan)
BuffaloBUFF (-3.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

30.9%

C Michigan Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

BUFF By 1-6 points

12.9%

BUFF By 7-13 points

9.6%

CMU By 1-6 points

16.5%

CMU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
13
BUFFALO
20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim C Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim C Michigan (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 33.0
B
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 BUFF @ CMU 19 - 38
Oct 7, 2023 CMU @ BUFF 13 - 37
Nov 9, 2022 BUFF @ CMU 27 - 31
Oct 26, 2019 CMU @ BUFF 20 - 43
Oct 6, 2018 BUFF @ CMU 34 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Central Michigan: 174.1 vs Buffalo: 127.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Central Michigan: 0.4 vs Buffalo: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +39.3% more
Buffalo: 1.8 vs Central Michigan: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 13.0 19
CMU Score 20.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 17.6 17.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 174.1 / 127.0 111.0 / 136.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 340.5 / 351.3 358.0 / 398.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.8 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
CMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
CMU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
BUFF
CMU
BUFF
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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