Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ Old Dominion TROY @ ODU

TROY

TROYTROY

6-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 7:30 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

6-3  |  Home

33
Key Game
TJ Thompson
KEY GAME

TJ Thompson

#4 | Linebacker
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
TJ Thompson None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
100%
📊
OLD DOMINION
0%
TROY --
OLD DOMINION --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Old Dominion)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 Old DominionODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

14.2%

Old Dominion Cover

85.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

TROY By 1-6 points

7.2%

TROY By 7-13 points

4.1%

ODU By 1-6 points

12.2%

ODU By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
30
TROY
45
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
17
TROY
31
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Old Dominion Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Sim Old Dominion (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 75.0
A
Sim u53.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 13, 2025 TROY @ ODU 0 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +77.7% more
Old Dominion: 167.4 vs Troy: 94.2
Turnovers (L5) +49.2% more
Old Dominion: 1.9 vs Troy: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +41.1% more
Old Dominion: 423.2 vs Troy: 300.0
First Downs (L5) +24.6% more
Old Dominion: 20.9 vs Troy: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 30.0 0
ODU Score 45.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 16.8 20.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 167.4 / 94.2 351.0 / 26.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 423.2 / 300.0 503.0 / 138.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
TROY
ODU
TROY
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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