CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
7-3 | Road
138
MIAMI
HEATMIA
6-4 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
HEAT
0%
CAVALIERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CLE By 1-7 points
24.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
124
CLEVELAND
Miami
125
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
109
CLEVELAND
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o246.5
Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u246.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
MIA @ CLE
128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026
MIA @ CLE
120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025
CLE @ MIA
130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.5% more
Miami: 11.9
vs
Cleveland: 8.3
Turnovers (L5)
+24.7% more
Miami: 12.3
vs
Cleveland: 9.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Miami: 73.1%
vs
Cleveland: 67.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Miami: 50.1%
vs
Cleveland: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
124.0
138
MIA Score
125.0
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 39.7
33.0 / 32.0
Assists
29.3 / 27.1
32.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.3
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 47.9
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 67.4
88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 36.5
56.0 / 60.0
Steals
11.9 / 8.3
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 9.9
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48%
46-50
60%
69-46
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
75-37-3
59%
48-34
56%
55-44
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
68-47
100%
82-0
100%
99-0
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