NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
2-7 | Road
98
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
5-5 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
SUNS
100%
PELICANS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
NO By 1-7 points
26.2%
NO By 8-14 points
25.3%
PHX By 1-7 points
15.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
124
NEW ORLEANS
Phoenix
117
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
New Orleans
109
NEW ORLEANS
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.0
Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u227.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
NO @ PHX
116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025
PHX @ NO
123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025
PHX @ NO
115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025
NO @ PHX
98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025
NO @ PHX
108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.6% more
Phoenix: 8.6
vs
New Orleans: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+14.9% more
Phoenix: 24.0
vs
New Orleans: 20.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.9% more
Phoenix: 13.4
vs
New Orleans: 12.0
Blocks (L5)
+8.8% more
Phoenix: 2.5
vs
New Orleans: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
124.0
98
PHX Score
117.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 37.7
44.0 / 31.0
Assists
24.0 / 20.9
29.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.3
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 46.0
50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 66.2
77.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 38.0
43.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.6 / 7.0
12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 12.0
18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
NO
PHX
NO
ML
57%
60-45
62%
98-61
51%
45-43
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
68%
107-51-1
51%
45-43
58%
48-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
75%
119-40
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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