Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Eagles PENN @ AMER

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

1-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 1:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

0-1  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
QUAKERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pennsylvania)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

65.5%

Eagles Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PENN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)

PENN By 1-7 points

27.4%

PENN By 8-14 points

21.6%

AMER By 1-7 points

20.1%

AMER By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
PENNSYLVANIA
71
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
68
PENNSYLVANIA
71
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Quakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Quakers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 PENN @ AMER 78 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
Pennsylvania: 2.4 vs American University: 1.4
Rebounding (L5) +28.7% more
Pennsylvania: 42.3 vs American University: 30.2
Assists (L5) +24.8% more
Pennsylvania: 17.1 vs American University: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Pennsylvania: 49.8% vs American University: 46.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 75.0 78
AMER Score 71.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 34.0 30.0 / 43.0
Assists 12.8 / 17.1 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.4 / 2.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 49.8 48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 76.3 65.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 42.3 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.4 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 12.2 13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
AMER Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
PENN
AMER
PENN
ML
62% 20-12
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
76% 22-7
ATS
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
62% 20-12
76% 22-7
TTL
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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