MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
0-1 | Road
75
DARTMOUTH
BIG GREENDART
0-0 | Home
56
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
0%
BIG GREEN
100%
RED FOXES
--
BIG GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Marist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
MRST By 1-7 points
27.2%
MRST By 8-14 points
20.1%
DART By 1-7 points
21.6%
DART By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Marist
69
MARIST
Dartmouth
66
DARTMOUTH
Simulated Score
Marist
65
MARIST
Dartmouth
68
DARTMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Foxes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Big Green
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Foxes (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Big Green (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
MRST @ DART
75 - 56
Nov 19, 2024
DART @ MRST
62 - 75
Dec 9, 2023
MRST @ DART
63 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.6% more
Marist: 4.4
vs
Dartmouth: 3.2
Steals (L5)
+22.1% more
Marist: 5.8
vs
Dartmouth: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
Marist: 13.3
vs
Dartmouth: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Marist: 77.9%
vs
Dartmouth: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRST Score
69.0
75
DART Score
66.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 25.3
15.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.4 / 13.1
9.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 39.7
35.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 77.9
68.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 36.2
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
4.5 / 5.8
6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.3
20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
DART
11-16-0
(40.7%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
DART
11-14-0
(44.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
DART
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DART
MRST
DART
MRST
ML
62%
16-10
55%
17-14
50%
13-13
61%
19-12
ATS
65%
17-9
74%
23-8
50%
13-13
61%
19-12
TTL
88%
23-3
52%
16-15
100%
26-0
100%
31-0