Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bisons @ Bears LIP @ MER

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

0-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 2:00 PM ET
Hawkins Arena
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

1-1  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BISONS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BISONS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
LIPSCOMB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Lipscomb)
BisonsLIP (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bisons Cover

98.6%

Bears Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIP -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIP)

LIP By 1-7 points

5.8%

LIP By 8-14 points

15.3%

MER By 1-7 points

1.1%

MER By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
LIPSCOMB
63
MERCER
Simulated Score
68
LIPSCOMB
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bisons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bisons (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 LIP @ MER 77 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.9% more
Lipscomb: 14.0 vs Mercer: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +16.3%
Lipscomb: 87.2% vs Mercer: 70.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Lipscomb: 32.2% vs Mercer: 28.3%
Steals (L5) +132.5% more
Mercer: 10.9 vs Lipscomb: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIP Score 85.0 77
MER Score 63.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 32.2 45.0 / 34.0
Assists 13.0 / 11.6 21.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.7 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 38.5 / 38.7 57.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 87.2 69.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 41.2 / 32.0 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 10.9 / 4.7 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 14.0 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
MER
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
LIP
MER
LIP
ML
55% 17-14
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
66% 19-10
ATS
58% 18-13
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
66% 19-10
TTL
61% 19-12
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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