SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
2-0 | Road
58
NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
1-0 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
SDST By 1-7 points
24.3%
SDST By 8-14 points
13.7%
UNI By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNI By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
69
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Northern Iowa
70
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
68
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Northern Iowa
72
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
SDST @ UNI
58 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.9% more
Northern Iowa: 3.9
vs
South Dakota State: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+35.3% more
Northern Iowa: 17.0
vs
South Dakota State: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Northern Iowa: 38.4%
vs
South Dakota State: 34.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
Northern Iowa: 70.1%
vs
South Dakota State: 66.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
69.0
58
UNI Score
70.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 34.3
33.0 / 23.0
Assists
17.0 / 12.6
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.5
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 43.5
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 66.1
55.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 39.4
23.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.0
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 12.8
11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
SDST
UNI
SDST
ML
51%
18-17
75%
24-8
56%
19-15
53%
17-15
ATS
49%
17-18
78%
25-7
56%
19-15
53%
17-15
TTL
69%
24-11
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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