IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
2-0 | Road
57
SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
1-0 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
AZTECS
0%
BENGALS
--
AZTECS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)
IDST By 1-7 points
24.3%
IDST By 8-14 points
13.7%
SDSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
SDSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho State
66
IDAHO STATE
San Diego State
67
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
Idaho State
56
IDAHO STATE
San Diego State
78
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aztecs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Aztecs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
IDST @ SDSU
57 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+48.4% more
San Diego State: 8.3
vs
Idaho State: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+36.9% more
San Diego State: 12.1
vs
Idaho State: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+25.9% more
San Diego State: 14.0
vs
Idaho State: 11.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
San Diego State: 37.7%
vs
Idaho State: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDST Score
66.0
57
SDSU Score
67.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 29.4
35.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.0 / 11.2
17.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 42.7
59.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
65.2 / 68.6
75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 37.5
22.0 / 25.0
Steals
8.3 / 5.6
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 8.8
12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
SDSU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
IDST
SDSU
IDST
ML
62%
20-12
59%
19-13
72%
23-9
72%
23-9
ATS
69%
22-10
50%
16-16
72%
23-9
72%
23-9
TTL
75%
24-8
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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