Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Pilots UCD @ PORT

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

2-0  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 5:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

2-0  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
PILOTS
0%
AGGIES --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Portland)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

0.3%

Pilots Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PORT -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

UCD By 1-7 points

0.2%

UCD By 8-14 points

0.0%

PORT By 1-7 points

1.7%

PORT By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
UC DAVIS
84
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
68
UC DAVIS
72
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pilots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pilots (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 UCD @ PORT 63 - 67
Dec 22, 2021 PORT @ UCD 65 - 60
Nov 23, 2019 UCD @ PORT 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.0% more
Portland: 19.4 vs UC Davis: 14.5
Rebounding (L5) +17.0% more
Portland: 38.9 vs UC Davis: 33.2
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Portland: 75.3% vs UC Davis: 72.1%
Steals (L5) +29.3% more
UC Davis: 8.8 vs Portland: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 56.0 63
PORT Score 84.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 42.9 32.0 / 21.0
Assists 19.4 / 14.5 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 48.4 41.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 72.1 73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 33.2 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.8 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.4 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
UCD
PORT
UCD
ML
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
82% 27-6
64% 21-12
ATS
67% 22-11
61% 20-13
82% 28-6
64% 21-12
TTL
55% 18-15
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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