BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
4-6 | Road
111
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
4-5 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
MAGIC
0%
CELTICS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
193.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
BOS By 1-7 points
24.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
13.7%
ORL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
96
BOSTON
Orlando
97
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Boston
115
BOSTON
Orlando
110
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 193.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ORL @ BOS
108 - 113
Nov 23, 2025
ORL @ BOS
129 - 138
Nov 9, 2025
BOS @ ORL
111 - 107
Nov 7, 2025
BOS @ ORL
110 - 123
Apr 29, 2025
ORL @ BOS
89 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.3% more
Orlando: 12.8
vs
Boston: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.2%
Orlando: 39.2%
vs
Boston: 32.0%
Steals (L5)
+19.3% more
Boston: 8.7
vs
Orlando: 7.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Boston: 65.0%
vs
Orlando: 62.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
96.0
111
ORL Score
97.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 32.0
24.0 / 39.0
Assists
21.2 / 21.8
21.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 46.2
45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
62.4 / 65.0
94.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 34.2
42.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.7
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 9.3
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
BOS
ORL
BOS
ML
61%
65-42
57%
61-46
56%
51-40
53%
47-41
ATS
64%
68-38-1
59%
61-43-3
56%
51-40
53%
47-41
TTL
57%
61-46
56%
60-47
100%
91-0
100%
88-0
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