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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

9-1  |  Road

114
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 6:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

4-6  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
THUNDER --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

100.0%

Grizzlies Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

0.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

0.4%

MEM By 1-7 points

0.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
147
OKLAHOMA CITY
106
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
123
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.5 Loss
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Oklahoma City: 5.3 vs Memphis: 3.3
Steals (L5) +17.0% more
Oklahoma City: 8.4 vs Memphis: 7.0
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Oklahoma City: 49.4% vs Memphis: 44.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Oklahoma City: 37.5% vs Memphis: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 147.0 114
MEM Score 106.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 37.5 39.0 / 23.0
Assists 21.6 / 22.6 30.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.3 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 49.4 38.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 73.4 72.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 40.4 50.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.0 / 8.4 3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 10.5 14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
OKC
MEM
OKC
ML
57% 59-44
70% 80-34
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38
73% 83-30-1
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
TTL
70% 71-31-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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