Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Chargers PSU @ NHVN

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

1-0  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

NEW HAVEN

CHARGERSNHVN

0-2  |  Home

43
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
0%
📊
CHARGERS
100%
NITTANY LIONS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Penn State)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 ChargersNHVN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

57.9%

Chargers Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

PSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

NHVN By 1-7 points

23.0%

NHVN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
28
PENN STATE
26
NEW HAVEN
Simulated Score
57
PENN STATE
88
NEW HAVEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nittany Lions (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 PSU @ NHVN 87 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +69.5% more
Penn State: 15.3 vs New Haven: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +69.1% more
Penn State: 4.3 vs New Haven: 1.3
Rebounding (L5) +27.8% more
Penn State: 35.6 vs New Haven: 25.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.9%
Penn State: 36.9% vs New Haven: 21.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 28.0 87
NHVN Score 26.0 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.0 / 36.9 21.0 / 44.0
Assists 4.7 / 15.3 9.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.3 / 4.3 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 49.3 38.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 55.7 / 70.6 63.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 25.7 / 35.6 24.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.7 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.4 19.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
NHVN Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
NHVN Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NHVN
PSU
NHVN
PSU
ML
71% 22-9
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
ATS
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
TTL
42% 13-18
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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