TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
1-2 | Road
71
TULANE
GREEN WAVETULN
2-0 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
GREEN WAVE
0%
BOBCATS
--
GREEN WAVE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TULANE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tulane)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TULN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)
TXST By 1-7 points
24.3%
TXST By 8-14 points
13.7%
TULN By 1-7 points
26.2%
TULN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas State
38
TEXAS STATE
Tulane
39
TULANE
Simulated Score
Texas State
68
TEXAS STATE
Tulane
75
TULANE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Green Wave
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Green Wave
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Green Wave (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Green Wave (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.0
Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u147.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
TXST @ TULN
71 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.7%
Tulane: 77.6%
vs
Texas State: 67.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Tulane: 41.0%
vs
Texas State: 37.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+25.4% more
Texas State: 13.5
vs
Tulane: 10.0
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
Texas State: 37.5
vs
Tulane: 30.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXST Score
38.0
71
TULN Score
39.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 37.8
45.0 / 50.0
Assists
14.1 / 14.8
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.5
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 49.6
43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 67.9
100.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
30.0 / 37.5
28.0 / 33.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 13.5
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
TULN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
TULN
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
TULN
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
TXST
TULN
TXST
ML
70%
23-10
42%
13-18
47%
15-17
83%
25-5
ATS
62%
20-12-1
48%
15-16
47%
15-17
84%
26-5
TTL
55%
18-15
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
