MARSHALL
THUNDERING HERDMRSH
1-0 | Road
85
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
0-1 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
0%
ROCKETS
100%
THUNDERING HERD
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Marshall)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRSH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)
MRSH By 1-7 points
26.2%
MRSH By 8-14 points
25.3%
TOL By 1-7 points
15.3%
TOL By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Marshall
86
MARSHALL
Toledo
79
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Marshall
75
MARSHALL
Toledo
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thundering Herd
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thundering Herd (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
MRSH @ TOL
85 - 73
Nov 9, 2024
TOL @ MRSH
90 - 80
Dec 13, 2023
MRSH @ TOL
87 - 88
Dec 17, 2022
TOL @ MRSH
85 - 100
Dec 21, 2021
MRSH @ TOL
63 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+62.1% more
Marshall: 5.9
vs
Toledo: 2.3
Turnovers (L5)
+36.1% more
Marshall: 14.9
vs
Toledo: 9.5
Rebounding (L5)
+29.0% more
Marshall: 41.3
vs
Toledo: 29.4
Steals (L5)
+17.4% more
Marshall: 6.2
vs
Toledo: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score
86.0
85
TOL Score
79.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 35.1
32.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.8 / 17.8
16.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.3 / 5.9
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 44.0
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 71.8
79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
29.4 / 41.3
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.2
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 14.9
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
MRSH
TOL
MRSH
ML
48%
16-17
70%
21-9
61%
20-13
62%
18-11
ATS
48%
16-17
70%
21-9
61%
20-13
62%
18-11
TTL
64%
21-12
50%
15-15
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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