Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Retrievers @ Flyers UMBC @ DAY

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

1-0  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 2:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

1-0  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
RETRIEVERS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Dayton)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

6.7%

Flyers Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

UMBC By 1-7 points

4.8%

UMBC By 8-14 points

1.1%

DAY By 1-7 points

15.3%

DAY By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
70
UMBC
85
DAYTON
Simulated Score
56
UMBC
78
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 UMBC @ DAY 71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +129.5% more
Dayton: 4.2 vs UMBC: 1.8
Steals (L5) +41.0% more
Dayton: 7.9 vs UMBC: 5.6
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Dayton: 15.4 vs UMBC: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
Dayton: 70.5% vs UMBC: 66.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 70.0 71
DAY Score 85.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 42.1 32.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.4 / 12.8 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.8 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 44.6 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 66.8 79.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 33.2 27.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.9 / 5.6 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 9.3 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
DAY
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
UMBC
DAY
UMBC
ML
65% 24-13
58% 18-13
64% 23-13
55% 17-14
ATS
68% 25-12
68% 21-10
64% 23-13
55% 17-14
TTL
57% 21-16
39% 12-19
100% 36-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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