AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
1-0 | Road
74
AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
0-1 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
FALCONS
0%
GOVERNORS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Air Force)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)
APSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
APSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AF By 1-7 points
26.2%
AF By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
68
AUSTIN PEAY
Air Force
69
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
72
AUSTIN PEAY
Air Force
78
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
APSU @ AF
74 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+69.3% more
Air Force: 16.6
vs
Austin Peay: 9.8
Blocks (L5)
+46.2% more
Austin Peay: 4.2
vs
Air Force: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+46.1% more
Austin Peay: 11.9
vs
Air Force: 6.4
Assists (L5)
+29.1% more
Austin Peay: 20.4
vs
Air Force: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
68.0
74
AF Score
69.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 39.8
31.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.5 / 20.4
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 49.6
37.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 77.7
33.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 35.4
41.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 11.9
10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 9.8
22.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
APSU
AF
APSU
ML
81%
26-6
53%
16-14
62%
20-12
59%
16-11
ATS
69%
22-10
57%
17-13
62%
20-12
59%
16-11
TTL
69%
22-10
57%
17-13
100%
32-0
100%
27-0
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