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UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

1-0  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
The Pit
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NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

1-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
MAVERICKS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Mexico)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Lobos Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UTA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNM By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
70
UT ARLINGTON
71
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
70
UT ARLINGTON
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 UTA @ UNM 56 - 74
Nov 16, 2023 UTA @ UNM 80 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.0% more
New Mexico: 8.3 vs UT Arlington: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
New Mexico: 35.0% vs UT Arlington: 26.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
New Mexico: 63.7% vs UT Arlington: 58.3%
Blocks (L5) +56.8% more
UT Arlington: 5.4 vs New Mexico: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 70.0 56
UNM Score 71.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 26.2 23.0 / 12.0
Assists 12.6 / 16.3 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.3 / 5.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.8 40.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 63.7 / 58.3 81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 43.7 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.3 / 6.9 14.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 13.6 12.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
UTA
UNM
UTA
ML
57% 21-16
50% 16-16
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
ATS
57% 21-16
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
TTL
41% 15-22
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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