WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
1-0 | Road
81
NORFOLK STATE
SPARTANSNORF
2-0 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
SPARTANS
100%
TRIBE
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
W&M By 1-7 points
27.2%
W&M By 8-14 points
20.1%
NORF By 1-7 points
21.6%
NORF By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
72
WILLIAM & MARY
Norfolk State
69
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
William & Mary
68
WILLIAM & MARY
Norfolk State
74
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
W&M @ NORF
81 - 78
Nov 12, 2024
NORF @ W&M
73 - 84
Nov 28, 2023
W&M @ NORF
62 - 96
Dec 10, 2022
NORF @ W&M
67 - 53
Nov 16, 2021
W&M @ NORF
74 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+29.0% more
William & Mary: 19.1
vs
Norfolk State: 13.5
Turnovers (L5)
+21.5% more
William & Mary: 13.8
vs
Norfolk State: 10.9
Blocks (L5)
+8.9% more
William & Mary: 3.9
vs
Norfolk State: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
William & Mary: 36.5%
vs
Norfolk State: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
72.0
81
NORF Score
69.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 36.5
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.5 / 19.1
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.9
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 49.8
43.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 70.7
55.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 39.4
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
11.6 / 9.3
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 13.8
19.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
NORF
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
NORF
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1%
Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
W&M
NORF
W&M
ML
67%
20-10
55%
17-14
71%
20-8
61%
19-12
ATS
63%
19-11
63%
19-11-1
72%
21-8
61%
19-12
TTL
60%
18-12
61%
19-12
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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