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ELON

PHOENIXELON

1-0  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

0-1  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
PHOENIX --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhoenixELON (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phoenix Cover

42.1%

Spartans Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCG +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

ELON By 1-7 points

26.8%

ELON By 8-14 points

18.6%

UNCG By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNCG By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
ELON
69
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
68
ELON
75
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phoenix Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 ELON @ UNCG 92 - 90
Dec 21, 2024 UNCG @ ELON 69 - 73
Dec 10, 2023 ELON @ UNCG 73 - 82
Dec 3, 2022 UNCG @ ELON 65 - 61
Nov 30, 2021 ELON @ UNCG 61 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.0% more
Elon: 14.5 vs UNC Greensboro: 12.3
Blocks (L5) +14.7% more
Elon: 3.5 vs UNC Greensboro: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
Elon: 80.1% vs UNC Greensboro: 69.5%
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Elon: 37.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 33.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ELON Score 71.0 92
UNCG Score 69.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 39.6 45.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.3 / 14.5 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 47.4 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 80.1 59.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 37.8 40.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.8 2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.5 11.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
ELON
UNCG
ELON
ML
38% 13-21
61% 19-12
71% 24-10
71% 22-9
ATS
44% 15-19
55% 17-14
71% 24-10
71% 22-9
TTL
76% 26-8
52% 16-15
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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