MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
0-1 | Road
60
STONY BROOK
SEAWOLVESSTBK
1-0 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
0%
SEAWOLVES
100%
BLACK BEARS
--
SEAWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Maine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ME -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)
ME By 1-7 points
27.4%
ME By 8-14 points
21.6%
STBK By 1-7 points
20.1%
STBK By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Maine
62
MAINE
Stony Brook
58
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
Maine
68
MAINE
Stony Brook
72
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seawolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Seawolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
ME @ STBK
60 - 71
Dec 21, 2024
ME @ STBK
72 - 74
Feb 13, 2022
STBK @ ME
85 - 74
Jan 8, 2022
ME @ STBK
72 - 80
Feb 22, 2020
ME @ STBK
46 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+50.3% more
Maine: 9.9
vs
Stony Brook: 4.9
Blocks (L5)
+26.5% more
Maine: 4.4
vs
Stony Brook: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Maine: 70.8%
vs
Stony Brook: 64.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+39.2% more
Stony Brook: 36.8
vs
Maine: 26.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ME Score
62.0
60
STBK Score
58.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 24.5
20.0 / 20.0
Assists
11.9 / 10.5
14.0 / 5.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.4
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 39.0
42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
64.8 / 70.8
65.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 26.5
42.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.9 / 9.9
3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 10.6
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
STBK
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
STBK
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
ME
STBK
ME
ML
61%
19-12
45%
14-17
71%
22-9
52%
16-15
ATS
61%
19-12
55%
17-14
71%
22-9
52%
16-15
TTL
65%
20-11
55%
17-14
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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