Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beach @ Bulldogs LBSU @ FRES

LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

0-1  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 5:00 PM ET
Save Mart Center
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

1-1  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BEACH --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Long Beach State)
BeachLBSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beach Cover

78.8%

Bulldogs Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LBSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)

LBSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

LBSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

FRES By 1-7 points

13.7%

FRES By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
LONG BEACH STATE
68
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
68
LONG BEACH STATE
73
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beach Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beach (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 LBSU @ FRES 62 - 82
Nov 23, 2024 FRES @ LBSU 72 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.5% more
Long Beach State: 17.2 vs Fresno State: 12.3
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
Fresno State: 6.5 vs Long Beach State: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Fresno State: 42.7% vs Long Beach State: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score 76.0 62
FRES Score 68.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.6 / 28.5 39.0 / 19.0
Assists 11.0 / 11.7 14.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 37.8 50.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 66.3 / 66.1 75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 34.8 38.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.9 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 17.2 16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
FRES Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
LBSU
FRES
LBSU
ML
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
74% 23-8
65% 20-11
ATS
75% 24-8
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
65% 20-11
TTL
56% 18-14
61% 19-12
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 9 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 15 hours ago
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
yahoo 5 days, 22 hours ago
WKU Men's Basketball Kicks Off Official Practices with Revamped …
wnky 1 week ago
Oregon Freshman Jett Washington Embraces Kobe Bryant Legacy Whil…
si 1 week, 1 day ago