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TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI

ISLANDERSAMCC

1-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

0-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
ISLANDERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
IslandersAMCC (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

69.1%

Texans Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AMCC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMCC)

AMCC By 1-7 points

27.2%

AMCC By 8-14 points

23.0%

TAR By 1-7 points

18.6%

TAR By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
65
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
69
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
74
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Islanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Islanders (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 AMCC @ TAR 77 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.0% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 4.0 vs Tarleton State: 2.1
Assists (L5) +35.7% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 14.7 vs Tarleton State: 9.4
Rebounding (L5) +35.1% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 41.2 vs Tarleton State: 26.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 41.2% vs Tarleton State: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMCC Score 70.0 77
TAR Score 65.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 32.2 53.0 / 43.0
Assists 9.4 / 14.7 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.0 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 37.8 / 41.2 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 63.5 78.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 26.8 / 41.2 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.4 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.3 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMCC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +1.7
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMCC Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +1.7
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AMCC
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -2.3
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
AMCC
TAR
AMCC
ML
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
66% 21-11
67% 18-9
ATS
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
66% 21-11
67% 18-9
TTL
50% 16-16
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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