ARMY
BLACK KNIGHTSARMY
1-0 | Road
76
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
0-1 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK KNIGHTS
100%
TOMMIES
0%
BLACK KNIGHTS
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
ARMY By 1-7 points
23.0%
ARMY By 8-14 points
12.2%
STMN By 1-7 points
26.8%
STMN By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Army
74
ARMY
St. Thomas-Minnesota
76
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Army
68
ARMY
St. Thomas-Minnesota
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tommies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
ARMY @ STMN
76 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 45.9%
vs
Army: 38.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 32.1%
vs
Army: 28.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 61.3%
vs
Army: 59.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+27.6% more
Army: 37.7
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 27.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score
74.0
76
STMN Score
76.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 28.1
20.0 / 32.0
Assists
13.2 / 13.4
18.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 38.2
50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
61.3 / 59.3
72.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
27.3 / 37.7
35.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.4 / 8.5
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 9.0
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -1.6
STMN
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.3
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
ARMY
STMN
ARMY
ML
64%
21-12
44%
14-18
64%
21-12
50%
16-16
ATS
70%
23-10
44%
14-18
64%
21-12
50%
16-16
TTL
61%
20-13
81%
26-6
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
