Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Wizards DAL @ WSH

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

2-7  |  Road

111
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

1-8  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
MAVERICKS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Washington)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

30.9%

Wizards Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

WSH By 1-7 points

27.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
114
DALLAS
119
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 DAL @ WSH 111 - 105
Oct 24, 2025 WSH @ DAL 117 - 107
Jan 27, 2025 WSH @ DAL 108 - 130
Dec 5, 2024 DAL @ WSH 137 - 101
Feb 12, 2024 WSH @ DAL 104 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
Washington: 16.5 vs Dallas: 14.0
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
Washington: 24.0 vs Dallas: 20.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Washington: 36.2% vs Dallas: 30.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Washington: 45.9% vs Dallas: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 114.0 111
WSH Score 119.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 30.7 31.0 / 25.0
Assists 24.0 / 20.5 17.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.1 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 44.3 42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 61.2 / 60.2 87.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 37.3 44.0 / 51.0
Steals 4.3 / 7.4 7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 14.0 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DAL
WSH
DAL
ML
70% 112-49
62% 63-39
47% 39-44
54% 44-37
ATS
69% 111-49-1
67% 68-34
47% 39-44
54% 44-37
TTL
74% 119-41-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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