PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
5-3 | Road
131
MIAMI
HEATMIA
5-4 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
HEAT
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
POR By 1-7 points
26.8%
POR By 8-14 points
18.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
123
PORTLAND
Miami
121
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Miami
107
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o242.0
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u242.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
MIA @ POR
110 - 127
Nov 8, 2025
POR @ MIA
131 - 136
Jan 21, 2025
POR @ MIA
116 - 107
Jan 11, 2025
MIA @ POR
119 - 98
Mar 29, 2024
POR @ MIA
82 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+65.2% more
Miami: 25.5
vs
Portland: 15.4
Steals (L5)
+42.6% more
Miami: 9.3
vs
Portland: 6.5
Blocks (L5)
+37.9% more
Miami: 4.2
vs
Portland: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+17.0% more
Miami: 33.5
vs
Portland: 28.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
123.0
131
MIA Score
121.0
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 33.8
29.0 / 27.0
Assists
25.5 / 15.4
37.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.1
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 42.9
51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 54.7
78.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 28.6
47.0 / 57.0
Steals
9.3 / 6.5
17.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 11.6
15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
POR
MIA
POR
ML
48%
46-50
53%
56-49
59%
48-34
55%
49-40
ATS
51%
49-47
62%
65-39-1
59%
48-34
55%
49-40
TTL
59%
57-39
56%
58-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
89-0
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