Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Nuggets IND @ DEN

INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-7  |  Road

100
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

6-2  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
PACERS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

42.1%

Nuggets Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

IND By 1-7 points

26.8%

IND By 8-14 points

18.6%

DEN By 1-7 points

23.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
127
INDIANA
125
DENVER
Simulated Score
112
INDIANA
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o238.0 Loss
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim u238.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 DEN @ IND 135 - 120
Nov 8, 2025 IND @ DEN 100 - 117
Apr 6, 2025 IND @ DEN 125 - 120
Feb 24, 2025 DEN @ IND 125 - 116
Jan 23, 2024 DEN @ IND 114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Indiana: 11.6 vs Denver: 8.9
Assists (L5) +25.7% more
Denver: 25.1 vs Indiana: 20.0
Steals (L5) +25.0% more
Denver: 6.7 vs Indiana: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Denver: 63.8% vs Indiana: 54.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 127.0 100
DEN Score 125.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 31.1 30.0 / 22.0
Assists 25.1 / 20.0 32.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.3 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 43.0 48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 63.8 / 54.8 83.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 38.5 55.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.4 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 11.6 18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
IND
DEN
IND
ML
54% 57-48
48% 47-50
55% 47-39
54% 45-38
ATS
63% 65-38-2
59% 57-40
55% 47-39
54% 45-38
TTL
54% 56-48-1
54% 52-45
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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