NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
2-6 | Road
119
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
6-2 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
SPURS
0%
PELICANS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
NO By 1-7 points
10.7%
NO By 8-14 points
3.3%
SA By 1-7 points
23.0%
SA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
109
NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio
119
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
112
NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u224.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
NO @ SA
104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025
SA @ NO
135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025
NO @ SA
119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025
SA @ NO
120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025
NO @ SA
115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.0% more
San Antonio: 9.0
vs
New Orleans: 7.0
Turnovers (L5)
+22.6% more
San Antonio: 14.8
vs
New Orleans: 12.1
Blocks (L5)
+20.8% more
San Antonio: 2.9
vs
New Orleans: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
San Antonio: 20.3
vs
New Orleans: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
109.0
119
SA Score
119.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 37.0
35.0 / 39.0
Assists
20.3 / 17.9
31.0 / 27.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.4
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 45.1
53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 58.3
89.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 36.9
43.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.0 / 7.0
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 12.1
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
NO
SA
NO
ML
60%
111-73
62%
98-61
58%
61-44
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
107-76-1
68%
107-51-1
58%
61-44
58%
48-35
TTL
74%
134-47-3
75%
119-40
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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