WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
7-6-1 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
7-5-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.11 | 0.850 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.01 | 0.967 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.11
GAA
Ldr 2.01
0.850
Save %
Ldr 0.967
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
LIGHTNING
100%
CAPITALS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
6.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TB By 1 goal
0.9%
TB By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
WSH @ TB
1 - 3
Nov 22, 2025
TB @ WSH
5 - 3
Nov 8, 2025
WSH @ TB
2 - 3
Oct 14, 2025
TB @ WSH
2 - 3
Mar 1, 2025
TB @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+13.3% more
Washington: 19.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 16.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.1%
Washington: 50.3%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.2%
Takeaways (L5)
+24.0% more
Tampa Bay: 5.5
vs
Washington: 4.4
Power Play % (L5)
+10.4%
Tampa Bay: 20.7%
vs
Washington: 10.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.0
2
TB Score
1.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.8 / 13.7
10.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
44.2 / 50.3
44.2 / 55.8
Hits
16.8 / 19.4
20.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
20.7 / 10.3
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 29.4
20.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 4.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
WSH
TB
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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