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SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

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72
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 8:30 PM ET
Pete Hanna Center
View Odds Details →

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

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82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Samford)
BulldogsSCST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Bulldogs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SCST By 1-7 points

24.3%

SCST By 8-14 points

13.7%

SAM By 1-7 points

26.2%

SAM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
88
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
89
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
85
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 SCST @ SAM 72 - 82
Dec 5, 2024 SAM @ SCST 88 - 81
Nov 17, 2023 SCST @ SAM 72 - 89
Dec 17, 2022 SAM @ SCST 61 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Samford: 15.1 vs South Carolina State: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Samford: 43.2% vs South Carolina State: 37.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Samford: 35.8% vs South Carolina State: 32.5%
Blocks (L5) +62.8% more
South Carolina State: 5.2 vs Samford: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCST Score 88.0 72
SAM Score 89.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 32.5 40.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.1 / 13.4 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.9 / 5.2 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 37.4 45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 76.6 65.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 33.2 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 18.2 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
2%MONEY98%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
SCST
SAM
SCST
ML
65% 20-11
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
74% 20-7
ATS
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
74% 20-7
TTL
35% 11-20
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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