ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
1-1 | Road
65
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
2-0 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
RED WOLVES
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
ARST By 1-7 points
6.8%
ARST By 8-14 points
1.7%
SFA By 1-7 points
18.6%
SFA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
36
ARKANSAS STATE
Stephen F. Austin
49
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
72
ARKANSAS STATE
Stephen F. Austin
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 85.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 7, 2025
ARST @ SFA
65 - 90
Nov 16, 2024
SFA @ ARST
49 - 59
Nov 30, 2019
SFA @ ARST
76 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 3.8
vs
Arkansas State: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+11.7% more
Stephen F. Austin: 7.2
vs
Arkansas State: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.5%
Arkansas State: 76.9%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 65.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Arkansas State: 11.3
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
36.0
65
SFA Score
49.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 35.5
36.0 / 19.0
Assists
15.0 / 14.8
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.1
8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 44.5
49.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
65.4 / 76.9
53.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 39.5
49.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.4
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.3
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
ARST
SFA
ARST
ML
59%
17-12
48%
15-16
79%
23-6
53%
16-14
ATS
59%
17-12
58%
18-13
79%
23-6
53%
16-14
TTL
62%
18-11
61%
19-12
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
